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Igad experts predict another wetter and hotter season in Kenya and the Horn of Africa

The latest weather forecast from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) shows that the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region will experience above-normal rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures during the upcoming June-September season. .

The countries that make up the GHA are Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda.

The report shows that Kenya’s coastal and western regions will experience a higher chance of wetter than usual conditions. The same weather pattern is forecast for Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, Uganda, South Sudan and Sudan.

However, parts of northern Somalia, isolated areas of western Ethiopia and northwestern South Sudan are expected to receive below-average rainfall.

The weather pattern is similar to that seen in 1998 and 2010, when much of the region experienced wetter than average conditions.

Early onset to normal

ICPAC also predicts an early or normal start to the rainy season in several areas, including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan and southern Sudan. By contrast, the start is likely to be delayed in Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan.

Temperature outlooks for the next four months suggest a high probability of warmer than normal conditions across the region, with areas such as northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania experience the most intense temperatures. heat.

“The Greater Horn of Africa is highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which pose serious challenges to the resilience of our communities,” said Dr. Guleid Artan, Director of ICPAC.

“Wetter than normal conditions forecast for June to September 2024 reflect patterns from 1998 and 2010, highlighting potential impacts, especially for South Sudan and Sudan, which could face flooding.”

Dr. Artan highlighted the importance of early warning systems to prepare for these recurring extreme weather events.

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